Rwanda’s journey toward becoming a high-income nation by 2050 is driven by clear strategic frameworks, one of which is the 2nd National Strategy for Transformation (NST2) for 2024–2029. This strategy focuses on five key priorities: creating productive jobs, boosting exports, improving education, reducing malnutrition, and enhancing public service delivery.

However, the path to achieving these goals is not straightforward. The complexity of today’s world, marked by technological disruptions, geopolitical changes, and climate risks, demands that policymakers navigate an unpredictable future. To manage this uncertainty, the Ministry of ICT and Innovation (MINICT) and the Rwanda Economy Digitalisation Programme (REDP) are using data-driven insights and scenario-based planning to inform Rwanda’s strategic decisions under NST2.

Leveraging data to inform key NST2 priorities

Since its inception, the REDP has sought to transform Rwanda’s policy planning through data. In partnership with MINICT, the Programme has analysed over 50 datasets from both the public and private sectors, offering insights that feed into the country’s decision-making process. By connecting real-world data to the NST2 priorities, Rwanda can not only tackle present challenges but also anticipate future ones. Some examples include:

1. Data-driven insights for job creation

Creating decent and productive jobs is one of the most critical priorities for NST2. The goal is to shift the labour force away from subsistence agriculture into more skilled sectors that drive higher incomes and sustained growth. However, the question remains: What jobs will emerge, and what skills will be needed?

The RED Programme’s analysis of labour data has provided essential insights into the skills gaps within Rwanda’s workforce. For instance, insights from the labour force survey revealed that to meet Vision 2050’s targets, approximately 1.7 million workers must move from elementary jobs to skilled positions. Furthermore, the data shows a significant need for adult education to bridge this skills gap. These insights are guiding the development of education and workforce policies to prepare Rwanda’s labour force for a more technologically advanced economy.

2. Boosting exports through strategic data use

One of Rwanda’s ambitious goals is to boost exports and reduce its reliance on imports, but this requires a keen understanding of global markets and local production capabilities. By analysing trade and agriculture data, MINICT and REDP have helped the government identify key sectors for export growth, such as ICT, manufacturing, and agricultural products. The next step includes using data to anticipate international trade trends and determining how Rwanda’s export strategies can be optimised in an increasingly competitive global economy.

3. Enhancing education with predictive models

Improving the quality of education is central to preparing Rwanda’s future workforce. REDP has developed predictive models using educational data to estimate how many teachers Rwanda will need in the coming years and where the critical gaps in education are likely to be. This data-driven approach helps to ensure that investments in education are targeted and impactful, addressing not only immediate educational needs but also laying the foundation for Rwanda’s transformation into a knowledge-based economy.

4. Tackling malnutrition with data insights

Addressing food security and reducing malnutrition are critical components of NST2. Despite increases in food production, nearly a third of Rwanda’s population remains undernourished. REDP’s analysis has shown that Rwanda will need to more than double its current food production by 2050.

Leveraging agriculture data from systems like the Smart Nkunganire System (SNS), MINICT and REDP have informed policies around agricultural subsidies and production enhancements. Furthermore, dashboards like Esoko provide real-time data on food prices, enabling the government to better respond to food insecurity and ensure that food production strategies align with the needs of the population.

5. Public service delivery: Transforming governance with data

Public service delivery is essential for good governance, and MINICT’s efforts to digitise services are critical to achieving this goal. REDP’s data-driven approaches have already demonstrated improvements in how services are delivered to citizens. For example, digitised platforms allow policymakers to monitor and enhance public services, making them more accessible and efficient.

Through data analysis, MINICT can identify bottlenecks in public services and ensure that resources are allocated where they are most needed. This results in a more transparent, efficient, and responsive government, which is a core objective of NST2.

The power of scenario-based planning

While data helps Rwanda understand its current challenges and opportunities,scenario-based planning allows policymakers to anticipate and prepare for multiple potential futures. This approach has become an essential tool for Rwanda’s long-term strategy, enabling MINICT and REDP to explore how global and local trends might impact key NST2 priorities.

By building scenarios around possible global economic shifts, technological disruptions, and climate risks, the government can make more informed decisions about which policies to prioritise and how to adapt. For example:

• In the context of job creation, the scenario exercise undertaken by the programme allows policymakers to consider two different futures – whether Rwanda’s labour market is disrupted by automation or whether new opportunities arise through regional trade partnerships. These scenarios inform which skills to invest in today are more likely to be aligned to future demand for skills.
• In the area of food security, scenarios based on climate data help Rwanda plan for different rainfall patterns, potential droughts, and shifting crop yields. With these insights, Rwanda can develop a more resilient food system that supports its population through both prosperous and challenging times.

As Rwanda moves forward with NST2, the collaboration between MINICT and REDP demonstrates the power of data-driven policymaking and scenario-based planning in tackling complex socio-economic challenges. The future is never guaranteed, but through careful planning and the strategic use of data, Rwanda is improving its chances of long-term success

This article was first published in The New Times