For the past three decades, Rwanda has had remarkable growth. Between 1999 and 2023, real GDP per capita grew on average 5% per annum. But the aim is even higher: Rwanda’s vision is to become a high-income country by 2050 and to reach this goal it would need to surpass the growth rate of even the fastest-growing economies worldwide. In the words of President Kagame: “We don’t want to be a status quo country or status quo people. … Vision 2050 has to be about the future we choose because we can, and because we deserve it.”

The Government of Rwanda faces several urgent policy questions as it works towards this future vision.

One question is the future of employment: Vision 2050 sees a productive labour force able to earn high incomes. It expects agriculture to decline to 20% of total employment by 2050, down from 47% in 2022.

A second key policy question is food security. This goal is core to a productive labour force and Rwanda’s high-income aspirations.

In tackling these policy questions, the Government does not only need to contend with domestic realities but also broader global developments and trends. The world is in turmoil, geopolitically, technology is changing the structure of the global economy, and climate change is an inevitable reality of which the effects are all too real.

Amidst all of this: What to do, in what combination and sequence, to make Vision2050 a reality? The sheer complexity of the task can easily lead to policy paralysis. Equally dangerous is jumping on a course of action without taking the trade-offs into account.

The Government of Rwanda is opting for a third route: it is turning to data.

In May 2024, the Ministry of ICT and Innovation, the Mastercard Foundation and Cenfri announced the launch of the second phase of the Rwanda Economy Digitalisation Programme (REDP). Over the past three years, the programme has accessed and analysed more than 46 datasets from the public and private sectors.

The results are already helping to inform decision-making:

• On the question of the future of employment, REDP data analysis has shown that achieving Vision2050’s income requires a shift from elementary jobs to skilled jobs. This means that 1.7 million workers must shift up the skills ladder. Yet many adults haven’t completed primary school, which restricts them to elementary jobs. By analysing data from the School Data Management System (SDMS) we are able to identify challenges in the current education system to bridge this gap, such as the need for more pre-primary education and reduced primary school drop-outs. We have also been able to develop a model to forecast the number of teachers the Rwandan government would need to hire to meet its objectives. Now we will tackle the question of how best to design an adult education programme to create the skills necessary to transition the labour force out of elementary jobs.
• On the food security question, the data shows that, despite recent increases in food production and imports, nearly a third of the population is undernourished. That is almost 4 million people. To feed the growing population by 2050, Rwanda will require at least double the amount of food it currently produces – through enhanced production and more imports – and a move away from rain-fed subsistence farming practices. By analysing agriculture data such as that generated by the Smart Nkunganire System (SNS), the programme is able to help inform thinking around the cost-effectiveness of input subsidies and their role in supporting food production in Rwanda. We have also been able to create dashboards to inform policymaking, such as the Esoko dashboard to help the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MINICOM) track food prices and inflation. Next, we plan to develop a staple crop forecasting model to improve the measurement of food security conditions. We also want to leverage rainfall, earth observation and topographic data to determine the optimal design and locations for a national irrigation system.

The second phase of the programme will target increased adoption of data-driven decision-making to manage complex trade-offs in the agriculture, education, retail, and tourism sectors. Throughout, the eye is firmly on Vision 2050.

To kick-start its phase 2 engagement, REDP facilitated a scenario-building exercise with the Government of Rwanda to see how data can help to inform the policy options to achieve Vision 2050. This is done through the policy innovation lab, which serves as the hub for generating data-driven insights to support policy decisions.

Watch to see how we can make Rwanda’s Vision 2050 a reality.

Read here on how the scenario exercise contributed to the 2nd National Transformation Strategy (NST2)